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Deterrence Credibility and the Nuclear Escalation Ladder: India’s Quest for Limited War Under Nuclear Threshold
Ch. Musawar Sharief Sandhu, Uzma Mahboob
Abstract:
This research paper explores the changing aspects of the deterrence stability between Pakistan and India, with specific emphasis on India's quest for limited or conventional warfighting capabilities under the nuclear overhang and the potential risks of escalation on the nuclear ladder. The study brings evidence from the two recent crises of escalating risk patterns in South Asia through analysis of the Pulwama-Balakot confrontations of 2019 and the Pahalgam-Operation Sindoor/Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos conflict of 2025, based on the escalation ladder model, stability-instability paradox, and deterrence theory of Herman Kahn, Glenn Snyder, and Thomas Schelling respectively. The paper uses a qualitative desk research methodology and is a synthesis of primary and secondary sources that encompass official government statements, prominent think tank crisis reporting and scholarly analysis from peer-reviewed journal research papers. According to the findings, India has consistently tried to find a conventional space, who is not below Pakistan's nuclear threshold, with its doctrinal shift from the Cold Start to Dynamic Response Strategy, while the Full Spectrum Deterrence doctrine, based on tactical nuclear weapons such as the Nasr (Hatf-9) missile. The "2025 crisis" was a serious escalation that ascended much higher on Kahn's escalation ladder than any previous South Asian crisis, including the first missile exchanges between two nuclear powers and the first drone warfare between nuclear powers. questionable. _ions that with doctrinal uncertainty, the pace of decision making in the latest phase of the nuclear era and the lack of strong confidence-building measures, there is a possibility of accidental nuclear escalation, which makes the nuclear weapons' role as a stabilizer of the South Asian security environment questionable.
Keywords:
Nuclear Deterrence, Limited War, Escalation Ladder, Cold Start Doctrine, Full Spectrum Deterrence, South Asia.
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