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Demographic Projection: Navigating The Future of Pakistan with Box-Jenkins ARIMA Forecasting
Muhammad Rafique Daudpoto, Waseem Khoso, Ghulam Qadir Abro
Abstract:
This research work diligently explores the global issue of overpopulation with particular emphasis on Pakistan, where rapid demographic growth presents daunting development challenges. Using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology, we applied an ARIMA (1, 1, 2) model to carefully model and project the population trajectory of Pakistan for the next three decades. Challenges in making the data stationary notwithstanding, a thoughtful analysis using correlogram tests and logarithmic transformations managed to stabilize the data and residuals. The best and most parsimonious forecasting tool is the ARIMA (1, 1, 2) model, which forecasts a population of around 325.9 million in the year 2050. This really underpins why the government of Pakistan needs to be quite ahead in addressing the challenges posed by such rapid population growth. High rates of unemployment, non-abating poverty, and the increasing menace of criminality are certain pressing issues that will get further escalated because of the demographic leap foreseen. This professional inquiry underlines actionable insights and calls for strategic policymaking to negotiate through the complex landscape of population dynamics and further emphasizes that proactive governance is requisite for further national development.
Keywords:
Population Forecasting, ARIMA Models, Box-Jenkins Methodology, Time Series Analysis, Model Evaluation
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